one more day: Trump +5 LAT, +2 IBD

Well, who did you decide on, StefanM?

Light, my point is that IF Trump in any of those states got 59% of the white vote, they would have flipped - every one of them. He has a good shot at Colorado, PA and MI are tougher.

 

Clinton, for a variety of reasons, but I won't sidetrack the thread with them.

 

Yes, I want Clinton to win, but my prediction isn't based on that fact. I think it will be a very close one, but Clinton will win.

If I were fanboying the scenario, I'd be predicting a blowout.

 

I'd have to drill down into the numbers, but I doubt it. Besides Romney getting 59% of the white vote was nationwide.

 

IntheLight, I will try to crunch some numbers myself later on today and make another (probably) inaccurate prediction. I already disagree with you on Florida, I think it's Trump all the way but I agree that Ohio could make history tomorrow by being a GOP state in a losing election.

I think I have Hillary with a narrow lead in both popular and electoral votes but my analysis is ten days old and usually wrong. But I need to look at the latest numbers, think Feingold could win in WI, probably THE most difficult state for me. Laterz.

Of course you're not obligated to justify your vote to anybody but yourself but I am interested in when you made this decision - you were undecided, were leaning towards Hillary, then Trump, now a sure thing for Hillary and there's probably thousands of people out there like you.

 

The interesting thing about FL is Obama, 4 years ago, trounced Romney in early voting. Romney came back and won election-day voting, but it wasn't enough and he ended up losing by less than 1 percent.

Trump is doing much better in FL in early voting than Romney. Drudge is posting he's doing 130,000 votes better than Romney at this point. If trends hold (and that's a huge if, no one knows), he should win.

 

From a policy perspective, I'm a centrist (which would seem like a flaming Marxist to most on here), so I was never a Sanders fan, but I'm not a tea party kind of guy either. Trump was always a bit too conservative for me, and Hillary was a bit too liberal.

That being said, in the midst of all the scandals, debates, etc., I came to the point at which I could not entertain the option of supporting Trump. So I defaulted to Clinton.

She's never excited me (and still doesn't, apart from the history-making element), but I ended up deciding that I could vote for a very flawed candidate over what I perceived to be an intolerable one.

My decision was easy on some level, though, because I'm in a blood-red state. My vote really won't make a difference, even on down-ballot races. I mostly voted to have a voice on the ballot initiatives.

 

The Hispanic revenge vote will cause Trump to lose Florida. Clinton's ground game is superior to Trump's. Trump's ground game is nothing compared to Romney's. Trump CANNOT win the election without winning Florida.

 

I don't think that vote is big enough, and many hispanics like Trump. I know a hispanic woman at my church that calls her "boyfriend." LOL.

All the news agencies are saying they are tied in FL and that to me points to a Trump victory. He has the enthusiasm advantage. Hillary does not want to be tied with him anywhere. And if he takes FL, I'm convinced it's over. He can win without FL, looking at recent trends, but if he takes FL, game over. Turn out the lights, the party's over.

 

This is true, I believe, but I'm also listening to all the liberal news agencies telling me they are tied in FL. I can't imagine the Clinton campaign feels good about this. You look at Trump's FL crowds and have to give him the enthusiasm advantage. His voters are much more likely to turn out.

 

I think Trump's going to trade a few white nevertrumpers for some black americans. that'll be the ultimate. i so much want to join hands with my fellow black americans in the election.

 

But that is a comparison of the final poll results this year v. the election results of four years ago - all those undecided voters will be in either the Hillary or the Trump column, seeing that most of them won't go third party.